The stock has been in an uptrending channel since last June. It has tried to break out above the channel a couple of times and failed, but it continues to use the lower trendline as support. It has again come down to support and bounced. MACD and stochastics are very low, though they haven’t turned up yet so this isn’t really a confirmation.
The stock is currently at $29.46 with support at $28.25 and resistance around $33. There is also a secondary resistance line from the two failed breakouts that is also at around $33.
I did something different with the expiration on this one. I normally just go 2-3 months out. However, the options on this stock had very little time value, and I only had to pay $1.00 more for May contracts than what I would have had to pay for Dec. I figured I would give this a shot, and see how it affects my returns. Presumably, if the move happens within the next 1-2 months, I will still have plenty of time value left and will be able to sell for a bigger profit than normal.
This trade is also different because I don’t have a perfect confirmation from the MACD and stochastics indicators, and because the stock fell very quickly from resistance back down to the support line. I feel OK about that because the support line predicted exactly where the fall would stop, and it has since bounced off of it. We will just have to see how it turns out.
Exit strategy:
- Market order to sell if the stock trades below $27.30.
- Stop loss on the option at $1.50.
- Trailing stop loss (by $0.15) if the stock trades above $32.50.
