Raw numbers: I started the quarter with $10,769.55 on 1/1/2008 and ended with $11,981.74 on 3/31/2008, for a gain of 11.3%, compared to a gain of 7.7% in Q1. I gained $764.55 in January, $259.52 in February, and $188.12 in March. My profits dwindled at the end of the quarter, but it was nice to see all months end with positive results.
I executed well on my trades during this quarter. I did not take any trades that did not fit the criteria laid out in my trading plan. My exits, on the other hand, weren’t always perfect as I would occasionally get nervous and get out of a profitable position too soon. I need to focus on letting my predefined exits do their job and not get out too early.
My biggest mistake was again missing some trades that I should have taken. This was usually a result of not checking my watchlist carefully enough on days that I was busy, but there is really no good reason to miss a trade that is on my watchlist and shows all the right buy signals. One of my goals for this quarter was to take every trade that fits my criteria, so I still need to work on that goal.
One of my goals this quarter was to evaluate all of my past trades and see if I could have used a different exit strategy for more profit. One of the things that really struck me as interesting during that analysis is that I almost always got out of my positions too soon. I also noticed that I took a few trades where the stock started on the wrong side of its 200-day moving average (e.g. below the 200 DMA for a call), and every one of those trades went on to close for a loss. I think I will add a condition to my entry signal that the stock must be above the 200 DMA for a call and below the 200 DMA for a put. I will make another post soon with more detailed results from my post-mortem analysis.
Finally, I had another goal of finding a strategy to use during earnings season. I have made partial progress on this goal. First of all, I have been able to expand my watchlists by making better use of my search tools, so I have more stocks available to trade and usually don’t end up in a situation where they are all reporting earnings around the same time. This is not really a solution, but it does help me avoid periods where I can’t make any trades. Secondly, I have started tracking all of the buy signals that I see but can’t take due to earnings, so that I can later analyze whether I really need to avoid them, or if there are other strategies I could have used to take advantage of those buy signals. I will continue tracking these trades through the next quarter and analyze the results at that time.
Goals
These were my 90-day goals when I started this quarter:
Take every trade that fits my entry criteria
Come up with a plan for how to trade during earnings season
Evaluate results of recent trades and analyze alternative exit strategies
Continue updating this website on a regular basis
As I already mentioned, I still need to work on the first goal. I have made partial progress on the second goal, and have a plan for continued analysis in the next quarter. I have completed my analysis of my trades, and will continue to do this every 1 or 2 quarters. Finally, I have done a good job of keeping this website up-to-date.
These are my goals for the coming quarter:
Take every trade that fits my entry criteria
Come up with a plan for how to trade during earnings season
Let all of my positions close using their predefined exits
Use results of analysis on past trades to modify my trading plan, if necessary
Graph
Finally, here’s the graph of my portfolio value over this quarter. The graph actually ends on 3/28, which is a Friday, so that’s why it shows a higher value than I reported for the end of the quarter.
Analysis of Q2 FY08 (1/1/2008 – 3/31/2008)
April 6, 2008 — SaeedResults
Raw numbers: I started the quarter with $10,769.55 on 1/1/2008 and ended with $11,981.74 on 3/31/2008, for a gain of 11.3%, compared to a gain of 7.7% in Q1. I gained $764.55 in January, $259.52 in February, and $188.12 in March. My profits dwindled at the end of the quarter, but it was nice to see all months end with positive results.
I executed well on my trades during this quarter. I did not take any trades that did not fit the criteria laid out in my trading plan. My exits, on the other hand, weren’t always perfect as I would occasionally get nervous and get out of a profitable position too soon. I need to focus on letting my predefined exits do their job and not get out too early.
My biggest mistake was again missing some trades that I should have taken. This was usually a result of not checking my watchlist carefully enough on days that I was busy, but there is really no good reason to miss a trade that is on my watchlist and shows all the right buy signals. One of my goals for this quarter was to take every trade that fits my criteria, so I still need to work on that goal.
One of my goals this quarter was to evaluate all of my past trades and see if I could have used a different exit strategy for more profit. One of the things that really struck me as interesting during that analysis is that I almost always got out of my positions too soon. I also noticed that I took a few trades where the stock started on the wrong side of its 200-day moving average (e.g. below the 200 DMA for a call), and every one of those trades went on to close for a loss. I think I will add a condition to my entry signal that the stock must be above the 200 DMA for a call and below the 200 DMA for a put. I will make another post soon with more detailed results from my post-mortem analysis.
Finally, I had another goal of finding a strategy to use during earnings season. I have made partial progress on this goal. First of all, I have been able to expand my watchlists by making better use of my search tools, so I have more stocks available to trade and usually don’t end up in a situation where they are all reporting earnings around the same time. This is not really a solution, but it does help me avoid periods where I can’t make any trades. Secondly, I have started tracking all of the buy signals that I see but can’t take due to earnings, so that I can later analyze whether I really need to avoid them, or if there are other strategies I could have used to take advantage of those buy signals. I will continue tracking these trades through the next quarter and analyze the results at that time.
Goals
These were my 90-day goals when I started this quarter:
As I already mentioned, I still need to work on the first goal. I have made partial progress on the second goal, and have a plan for continued analysis in the next quarter. I have completed my analysis of my trades, and will continue to do this every 1 or 2 quarters. Finally, I have done a good job of keeping this website up-to-date.
These are my goals for the coming quarter:
Graph
Finally, here’s the graph of my portfolio value over this quarter. The graph actually ends on 3/28, which is a Friday, so that’s why it shows a higher value than I reported for the end of the quarter.